The maths of bumping into Steve McManaman (and Damian Lewis)

Now, when we go on holiday, I come home surprised when we haven’t bumped into someone we know. Partly that’s because it’s happened a lot – on the streets and in the hotels of Hong Kong, Tokyo, Costa Rica, San Francisco, Cape Town, Lisbon. The weirdest was at a bus stop on a highway in … Continue reading The maths of bumping into Steve McManaman (and Damian Lewis)

Getting to the Truth

Malcolm Gladwell was recently in London marketing his latest book, Talking to Strangers. The book is about the nature of truth. It weaves together stories, some well-known, some less so, of people who are misunderstood, often with damaging consequences. Most of the stories are about people who were trusted when they shouldn’t have been. People … Continue reading Getting to the Truth

My Favourite Theorem (Spoiler: It’s Bayes)

Thirty years ago, I was invited to interview for a place at Oxford University. I travelled down from my hometown of Liverpool and at the allotted time entered a fusty room at a storied college. Inside, sitting around a horseshoe table, were seven men. As the interview progressed it became clear that, like the seven … Continue reading My Favourite Theorem (Spoiler: It’s Bayes)

Luck and Skill in Financial Markets and Beyond

In the heat of the financial crisis Philip Falcone, billionaire hedge fund manager, testified in front of Congress. He said: “I take great pride in my upbringing, and it is important for the committee and the public to know that not everyone who runs a hedge fund was born on Fifth Avenue. That is the … Continue reading Luck and Skill in Financial Markets and Beyond

Fantasy Football and Investing

The official English Premier League fantasy football game, FPL, is currently played by over 7.2 million people, globally. Among the millions of mini-leagues that players organise themselves into, there is one that stands apart. Like many others it’s a work league of sorts, but unlike those others its members weren’t necessarily football fans before they … Continue reading Fantasy Football and Investing