Thanks for visiting my site. I am a former hedge fund manager, now active as a private investor and research consultant. You can read more about me here.
Degrees of Certainty is home to ‘evergreen’ content I’ve written on issues that touch on the investing process generally. I also write a weekly newsletter focussed more specifically on financial sector themes, which you can subscribe to here:
Some of my popular posts include:
- An introduction to network theory via the maths of bumping into Steve McManaman (and Damian Lewis).
- A series of posts on how we perceive truth and how we deal with complexity. The posts help to reconcile a host of paradoxes we meet on a daily basis.
- An account of the Air France Flight 447 crash and what lessons it provides, written on its ten-year anniversary.
- A post about Luck and Skill in Financial Markets. The best investment professionals have a deep understanding of the role that luck plays in their game.
- A post about My Favourite Theorem (Spoiler: It’s Bayes). The title of my blog, Degrees of Certainty, is a nod towards Bayes.
- Book reviews such as Stephen Schwarzman’s and Bob Iger’s memoirs.